Kunle Adelabu
It is exactly a month and eight days today (Tuesday, July 21, 2020) that the Senator representing the Lagos East Senatorial District and a major power broker in Lagos politics, Sen. Adebayo Sikiru Osinowo, died suddenly as a sitting member of the Upper Chamber of the National Assembly on June 15, 2020, thereby, creating a vacuum that must be filled in the next two months.
The scrambling for the vacant position actually started in earnest as politicians started their permutations and consultations a few days after the death of the late politician in Lagos and his subsequent interment late on the same day at his Ijebu – Ode country home in Ogun State.
From Ikorodu to Kosofe, Somolu, Ibeju Lekki and Epe, media platforms, both conventional and social media, were filled with clamours by residents of the Lagos East Senatorial District that it is their turn to produce the next Senator as replacement for late Osinowo.
Aside the five councils, there are 11 Local Council Development Areas and 98 Wards in the Senatorial District.
Since the Third Republic, four of the Councils in the Lagos East Senatorial District had produced Senators that represented the District at least once, except Kosofe which had been opportuned to produce twice.
While Senator Adefuye from Somolu represented the District in the short – lived third Republic, Ikorodu produced the former Minister of Works, Sen. Adeseye Ogunlewe, at the beginning of this democratic dispensation between 1999 and 2003.
It was Kosofe’s turn after Ikorodu and the former Speaker, Lagos State House of Assembly, Sen. Olorunimbe Mamora represented the District for two terms between 2003 and 2011 and after him, it was the turn of Ibeju – Lekki which produced Sen. Gbenga Ashafa who was at the Upper Chamber of the National Assembly between 2011 and 2019 and after him, Kosofe once again got the opportunity as they produced the political strategist and power – broker, Senator Gbenga Osinowo who represented the Lagos East in the First Session of the 9th National Assembly from June 2019 to June 2020 when he died and left a vacuum in the much coveted position.
Analysts and political observers have also argued that what Epe, the only part of the District that has not produced a Senator, has lost in Senatorial position, it has gained more by producing two Governors of the State in persons of late Sir Michael Otedola in the Third Republic and Mr Akinwunmi Ambode in the present democratic dispensation between 2015 and 2019.
Epe had also produced two Speakers of the Lagos Assembly since 1999 in the persons of Rt. Hon. Jokotola Pelumi and Rt. Hon. Adeyemi Ikuforiji
There have been open and behind the scene agitations by different groups, individuals and other forces to draw the attentions of the political parties, particularly the ruling party, All Progressives Congress (APC), to themselves for recognition.
At its meeting on Wednesday, June 1, 2020, the Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC) resolved that anybody from the five local governments in the Lagos Senatorial District that is interested in the vacant Senatorial position should come out and contest.
This was revealed by a member of the group and former Secretary to the Lagos State Government, Asiwaju Olorunfunmi Reuben Basorun, during a session with selected youth leaders and journalists in Ikorodu recently.
“We resolved that anybody that’s interested in the position from the five local governments in the District should go and apply and then start campaigning. Such a person must, however, be a party (APC) member”, he said.
The coast is thus clear for anyone interested in the seat to openly declare his or her intention, campaign and lobby to emerge as the flag bearer of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
But some sections of the party are seeing the GAC declaration as an attempt by the party elders to prove that they are incharge and make themselves force to be reckoned with and possibly to make the national leader of the party to consider their opinions in determining who will eventually emerge as a replacement for late Osinowo.
However, it is a notorious fact that emerging as a candidate of a political party for an election in Nigeria goes beyond obtaining party form and campaigning. There is a whole lot of intrigues, politicking, maneuvering and behind the scene string pulling. These thus suggests that the task of emerging as a party flagbearer, particularly that of a ruling party, is not going to be a child play but a process that may involve ‘blood’, sweat and high – powered politicking.
Aspirants from different parts of the Senatorial District that are either aspiring to run for the position or are being tipped to contest from Ikorodu Division on the APC platform are Hon. Babajimi Benson, Member, Federal House of Representatives, Hon. Sanai Olaniyan Bolanle Agunbiade, Majority Leader, Lagos State House of Assembly, Hon. Abike Dabiri – Erewa, Chairman/CEO, Nigeria Diaspora Commission, Hon. Olanrewaju Sunmi Odesanya,a former member of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Otunba Olusegun Ganiyu Abiru, Asipa Kaoli Olusanya, Vice Chairman, Lagos East Senatorial District, Prince Segun Ogunlewe, former Head of Service, Lagos State and Hon. Adebimpe Akinsola, former acting Commissioner and Special Adviser on Tourism, Arts & Culture among others.
We also gathered that the former General Manager and Permanent Secretary of the Lagos Television, Mr Lekan Ogunbanwo, is also very much interested in representing the Lagos East Senatorial District on the platform of the APC.
According to feelers from the PDP, the former Governorship candidate of the ADP in the last general elections, Mr Babatunde Gbadamosi, who recently returned to the party may have emerged as the candidate of the opposition party for the Senatorial bye-election.
Like the party’s candidate for the Senatorial contest in 2019, Princess Abiodun Oyefusi, Gbadamosi is also from Ikorodu Division part of Lagos State.
Information also has it that a section of the main opposition party is demanding that Princess Oyefusi should again be given the party’s ticket for the bye-election instead of Gbadamosi whom they accused of abandoning the party for ADP in the last general elections.
Also said to be interested in the Senatorial seat from Epe are Mr Akinwunmi Ambode, the immediate past Governor of Lagos State, Chief Lanre Rasaq, a former Council Chairman, Commissioner and Chieftain of the APC and Rt. Hon. Adeyemi Ikuforiji, former Speaker, Lagos State House of Assembly.
Senator Gbenga Ashafa, the Senator that represented the Lagos East Senatorial District in the 7th and 8th Assembly, Dr. Tola Kasali, a former Council Chairman, two-time Commissioner and Chieftain of APC in the state are also among those said to be jostling to replace Sen. Osinowo from lbeju – Lekki.
Ademorin Kuye, currently representing Somolu at the Lower Chamber of the National Assembly and former Commissioner in the State is also said to be interested in the Senatorial seat from Somolu axis of the District.
Rotimi Agunsoye, Member of the House of Representatives and former Commissioner, Hon. Dayo Bush-Alebiosu, who represented Kosofe Federal Constituency between 2007 and 2015 and Muyiwa Adedeji, former Kosofe Council boss and Dr. Rabiu Babatunde Osinowo, son of the late Sen. Osinowo, are also said to be jostling to represent the APC in the bye – election.
Factors That May Decide Who Emerges APC Candidate
APC National Leader
In the tradition of the ruling party, a major determinant of who gets what, especially important positions like a Senatorial seat which is usually reserved for loyal party man, is the National Leader of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu who himself was a Senator in the short-lived Third Republic.
Many political pundits have argued that Tinubu already has someone that he’s going to give the position to, but that he’s only taking his time before revealing his joker to the party leadership and other stakeholders.
But others have argued that the National Leader currently has his cup filled with spiraling events at the national and state levels which are not in his favour, while there are also some state matters which, according to report, the revered political thinker is trying to have a good grasp of, thus, he is not in haste to decide.
Tinubu is also said to still be mourning Senator Osinowo who was his good friend and ally saddled with the onerous task of resolving many knotting political issues while alive, as well as former Governor of Oyo State, Senator Abiola Ajimobi and Hon. Tunde Buraimoh, all of whom were reported to have died of complications from the dreaded COVID-19 disease.
Lagos State Governor
Another major determinant is the Governor of the State, Mr Babajide Sanwo – Olu. His prestigious position as the number one man in the state places him in a good stead to make vital contribution in determining who gets what in the state, especially in consultation with the national leader.
To the governor, it’s going to be time to repay those who worked for his success and emergence as the number one man in the state.
It would also be an opportunity to enable him picks somebody that he can trust and also have influence over the party structure as a way of preparing for his own political survival and re – election in 2023.
Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC)
The top decision making – body of the APC in the state will also play a big role in determining who emerges the next Senator of Lagos East, especially members of the council in the Lagos East Senatorial District.
THE IMPACT gathered that the party chieftains may have received the approval of the national leader of the party in declaring the contest for the Senatorial seat open to all interested party men at their meeting about two weeks ago.
Caucuses
Although, caucuses have been described as major reasons for disunity within the ruling party in the state following their recent ban, but there are indications that they will still play a major role in deciding who emerges as Senator Osinowo’s replacement.
THE IMPACT gathered that The Mandate Group (TMG), where Senator Osinowo belonged, is allegedly demanding that they should be allowed to produce the candidate for the bye – election to complete his term.
Also, Sen. Gbenga Ashafa, a two term Senator and a member of the Justice Forum (JF), we gathered, is being promoted for a comeback. Although, he tried to wrestle the ticket for a third term during the last electioneering period but he was no match for late Osinowo.
The TMG chieftains, however, are of the view that somebody from the group must complete late Osinowo’s tenure in the interest of fairness and equity.
Pepperito Political Family
The late Senator’s political family will also, to a very large extent, determine who takes over the seat of their leader at the Senate.
Some members of the group are already aware of this, hence they tried drafting the son of the late Senator into the race, but THE IMPACT gathered that those that flew the kite quickly retraced their steps when chieftains of the group and sponsors who are outside Kosofe kicked against the move.
However, despite that the move lacks serious consultations and approval of those that matter, the son of the late Senator is now under the radar for consideration.
There are also loyalists and political allies of late Osinowo who are currently well placed and can mobilize the Pepperito political force and TMG together to continue where he left. Some of these allies are ranking members of the Lagos Assembly, members of party structures at Senatorial and State levels and those managing his Senatorial constituency’s engagements.
Consideration for a member of the Peperito Political family/TMG would go a long way in determining how the ruling party will perform in the bye – election.
Opposition
Aside APC, there are other political parties that are interested in the race with the intent to unseat the ruling party. So far, only the main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has shown serious interest in the contest despite that 19 opposition parties participated in the contest for the position in the last general elections won by the late APC Senator.
The closest candidate to him in the election was the PDP candidate, Princess Abiodun Oyefusi, but nothing has been heard about her since then.
PDP may give APC a serious fight if the party puts its house in order. More so, political analysts are expecting the selection process to further polarize the APC which is already enmeshed in crisis.
However, it has not been bed of roses for the PDP too as the party had also suffered from internal wrangling which has also polarized it like APC.
The party is currently facing a dilemma in presenting a candidate for the bye-election as some party members are pushing for the candidature of the former Governorship candidate of the ADP in the last general election and a businessman, Mr Babatunde Gabdamosi who recently returned to the party, while those loyal to Princess Oyefusi, the daughter of the late Ayangbure of Ikorodu, are clamouring that she should be given another chance to vie for the much coveted Senatorial seat on the party’s platform.
Other factors are fund and control of councils and wards, antecedents among others.
