Kunle ADELABU & Jare OLUKOTUN
-It’s going to be two-horse race between APC, PDP
Agunbiade, Lamina, Ayanlaja and Odofin
Come Saturday, March 9, the Governorship and State Assembly elections would hold across the country according to the rescheduled timetable by the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) and like the previous elections, the contest for the two Assembly seats in Ikorodu division of Lagos State would be a two-horse race between the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
The division, according to the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, is still a single local government, but going by the Lagos State Government arrangement which created Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs) to bring governance closer to the people and engender development, the division has one local government and 5 LCDAs with two Constituencies.
Constituency I comprises of the old Ikorodu Local Government (Ikorodu township, part of Eruwen, and Agura/Gberigbe) with additional two LCDAs – Ikorodu West (Ipakodo and Agric/Owutu axis) and Ikorodu North (Agbala, Odogunyan, Ita-Oluwo, Maya and Isiu axis). While the Constituency II is made up of three LCDAs – Igbogbo/Bayeku (Igbogbo, Bayeku, Offin, Oreta, Agunfoye and Ibeshe), Ijede (Ijede, Oke-Eletu and Egbin) and Imota (Imota) LCDAs.
APC in its old forms as Alliance for Democracy (AD), Action Congress (AC) and Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) has been exerting dominant control over Ikorodu division’s political sphere since the advent of this democratic adventure in 1999. The party has delivered 100% in in five Presidential, Senatorial and House of Representatives elections, while achieving same percentage in the Governorship and near same percentage in the House of Assembly except on one occasion.
Although, the party, as ACN in 2007, won the two Assembly Seats in the division at the general elections but lost the Ikorodu Constituency II seat through bye-election to the PDP candidate, Hon. Gbenga Oshin (now APC member ) after the death of the then incumbent, Hon. Rotimi Sotomiwa
In a similar vein, the ruling party has maintained nearly 100 % success in the local government elections since 1999 except in Ikorodu where the PDP Councillorship candidate, Hon. Abayomi Bork Ayan laji, defeated the APC candidate.
It is important to note that on those two occasions when the party lost the Constituency II Assembly seat and Constituency I Councillorship seat, internal wrangling within the ruling party was the major reason.
From all indications, especially when one considers the results of the first phase of the 2019 general elections (Presidential/National Assembly Elections) where APC has proven its dominance once again in Ikorodu, the Governorship and Assembly elections may go the same way.
Agunbiade/Lamina, Solaja/Aro: Who Will Ikorodu Electorate Choose?
Ordinarily, the coming election for the Ikorodu Constituency I seas is supposed to be a walk-over for APC and its candidate, Hon. Sanai Oyeniran Bolanle. Agunbiade, who is a veteran contestant having won seven major elections since 2007 (four primaries and three general elections), but going by some factors most especially the internal wrangling within APC, the contest may not be an easy one. However, the party may eventually emerge victorious.
Although, the battle for the Ikorodu Constituency I Assembly seat is strictly between the APC candidate, Hon. Agunbiade, who is a ranking lawmaker, and the candidate of the main opposition party (PDP), Mr Mukaila Abiola Ajagun-Lamina, there are about 15 other political parties that have also fielded candidates for the coveted seat.
Among these are OSHO SEMIU ADETOKUMBO, (ABP), ABAYOMI BORK SHAMUSIDEEN, (AD), ODOFIN ADEYEMI OLUWAFEMI (ADC), SANNI MODUPE BAMITALE, (ADP), BALOGUN OLATUNBOSUN ROTIMI, (ANN), ADEMOYE MOBOLAJI OLUWASEUN, (ANP), OLUPENA ELEWURE, (LP), KAFAYAT ADENIKE ADEYEMI OLUBIYO, (MAJA), DANIEL BAMIRO ADEBOYE, (MPN), OLUFUNYO SARAH,( NCMP), ABIOLA ANJORIN, (NCP), OSHIN YINKA OMOLARA, (PPA), SAIDAT ADEPELOLA AWOBAJO (PPN), AREMU ATINUKE BETTY (PT) and ELEMUREN BROWN ROSEMARY IFEOLUWA, (SDP).
In Ikorodu Constituency II, the leading candidates are the incumbent, Hon. Nurudeen Saka Solaja, who is the APC candidate and a young politician who is the PDP flag bearer, Mr Aro Moshood Abiola.
Other candidates for the seat in the Constituency are: ADEGOKE ADEMOLA DAVID, (AD), OYEBANJO ADEOLA ISLAMIAT, (ADC), OMOBOLAJI OLORUNWA OSHINOWO, (ADP), SALAMI MICHAEL MALIK, (ANP), FEMI COLLINS, (DA), ADEROBAGUN ADEKOLA, (LP), AFOLABI OMOLOLA AFOLASHADE (MPN), OSINLOYE ADEBAYO, (NCP), OLUKAYODE KAZEEM OLUMAYOWA, (PT), MICHAEL OLUREMI, (SDP), ADENIYI STEPHEN, (YP).
Like in every election, some major factors will determine who will eventually emerge winner. Chiefly among the factors are political relevance of the division in the next dispensation, progressive tradition, party discipline, stance of aspirants that contested the primary elections against the candidates, effect of the Presidential/National Assembly’s elections, street credibility/popularity, control of strategic stakeholders, people’s perception, financial power and influence of traditional institution.
Other factors are financial power, as well as attitudes of party’s agents and canvassers on the day of the election.
Progressive Tradition:
In the coming election for the State Assembly seats, there is probability that Ikorodu electorate would continue to identify with the party they consider to be progressive. It has been a political tradition in the division that the people always vote along this pattern which is the reason the ruling party (APC) has been enjoying unhindered solidarity and support; in form of votes, from the people since 1999 and nothing is pointing at the direction that this tradition may change soon. This is an advantage for APC.
This view was echoed by the Vice President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, who just secured re-election with his boss for another four years, when he came on a campaign visit to Ikorodu recently.
At the open meeting with the traditional rulers, political leaders, artisans, market men and women and other critical stakeholders, Prof Osinbajo stated:
“We do not need to start canvassing for votes here because Ikorodu is a progressive town. Here is not where we have to start giving people voting education. The residents have been known for progressive type of politics“.
But if change is the most constant thing in life of man, then, it is also possible that people may want to change what they are used to and try something new. If this comes into play, coupled with the impressive performance of PDP in the Presidential /National Assembly Elections where they recorded decent number of votes, APC might be in for some serious surprises.
Verdict: Going by the last Presidential and National Assembly elections, APC is favoured to get more votes from the Ikorodu electorate.
Perception:
The perception that APC is a progressive party and PDP conservative is still very much common among the Ikorodu electorate despite the fact that no party can confidently lay claim to any ideology in Nigeria political system.
In addition, the fact that people of Ikorodu see PDP as a party that has denied them additional local governments due to the opposition of its government at the centre to the creation of five more councils (now Local Council Development Areas) by the Lagos State Government during the administration of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, out of the only existing Council (Ikorodu Local Government).
Consequently, the pains suffered by Ikorodu division like other divisions of Lagos State when the PDP-led federal government headed by President Olusegun Obasanjo withheld allocations of the local governments in Lagos State for many months due to the refusal of the state government to revert the creation of the LCDAs is still very fresh in the memories of its people.
APC also have its own share of negative perception ranging from lack of internal democracy, failure of the present APC administration in Lagos to commence the construction of the Ipakodo/Igbogbo/Tinubu/Igbe and Agric/Owutu roads after demolition of hundreds of houses to create right of way for the projects as well as its poor handling of waste management among others.
Verdict: Ikorodu electorate seem to be comfortable with APC, which has been ruling that state for about 20 years now, than PDP. However, the onus is on PDP to change the narrative.
Solaja, Aro, Adeola and Adegoke
Party Discipline:
Discipline in the parties, especially in the two dominant ones (APC and PDP), will, to a large extent, determine where the pendulum will swing for the contest for the two coveted Assembly seats in the division. There is no doubt that indiscipline reigns supreme in the two major parties with there leaders and members caught in anti-party activities. This trend is most prevalent in APC as party Chieftains had been shamefully captured on video and voice recordings telling party members and other electorate to vote against their party’s candidates.
There had also been situations where chieftains of the party are not committed to the campaign of their party’s candidates.
In a similar situation, cases of anti-party activities have also been leveled against the leadership and members of PDP by candidates and members.
Verdict: Both parties are grossly in disciplined but any of them that can effectively manage its affairs and checkmate the indiscipline tendencies of its members will have the advantage in the election.
Effect of Reconciliation:
Disagreements and opposing views are normal features of any group, particularly in political parties. But when such happen, internal mechanism put in place by the party would play a very crucial role in managing such situation
Quite unfortunately, both parties are also affected by internal crisis that has badly affected their winning chances in the coming elections. While APC has, to a very large extent, resolved crises that arose from its primary elections through the party’s structures at LGAs and Ward levels, PDP seems to be seriously enmeshed in$ the crisis. The faction that is currently in control of the party seems to be doing it all alone without carrying others along. Some of the candidates of the party are yet to recognize the incumbent chairman as authentic. As it was the case during the last Presidential/National Assembly elections, the crisis still persists going into the Governorship/State Assembly elections.
In the case of APC, there seems to be no more issue with the composition of the party executives at LGA and Ward levels, or simply put, members have resolved to put the interest of the party above individual and group’s interest for the sake of the election. Despite this, all cannot be said to be well with the ruling party too.
Another major concern is the stance of aspirants who contested against the two major candidates in the two parties. While APC has been embarking on intense reconciliation move to appease aggrieved leader, members and aspirants, PDP seems not to feel the need for such move.
However, that does not mean that all is well within the APC camp or that its reconciliation efforts have achieved 100% success as there are still allegations of few aspirants and leaders meeting with opposition candidates and pledging their supports against the interest of the party. Although, these allegations have continually been denied.
Verdict: Both parties are guilty of anti-party activities but anyone of them that is able to curtail this anomaly within its camp would surely have an edge over the other.
Bandwagon effect of outcome of Presidential/National Assembly Elections:
It is now becoming a tradition in the country for electorate to vote at the state level for the party that emerge victorious at the Presidential election which usually comes first. With APC winning not only the Presidential election but also secured the majority seats in both houses of the National Assembly, there is probability that the Governorship and State Assembly elections may follow same pattern. More so, people in this clime do not like to be in the opposition.
It must also be noted that if the results of the Presidential/National Assembly Elections in some places are anything to go by, then there is cause for the ruling party to worry. The results were close call in many areas despite the fact that many of the PDP candidates were no match for their APC counterparts in many respect. This shows that the voting pattern is changing.
Verdict: APC is still very much favoured in the two constituencies.
Political Relevance:
In actual fact, this appears to be the most important factor that would determine who gets the mandate in both Constituencies to represent Ikorodu division in the 9th Assembly. As it is at present and with the odds favouring APC to control the state in the next four years, residents may just vote for the party’s candidates who are returning for the fourth and second term respectively. More so, since nce the division cannot occupy the governorship and deputy governorship offices in the coming dispensation, the need to maintain a firm grip on the principal position currently being occupied by one of its representatives, Hon. Agunbiade who is the Majority Leader of the House, may also swing support towards the party.
The above points are the reasons incumbents representatives in the two Constituencies, especially Hon. Agunbiade favored to win on Saturday and return to the Assembly for the fourth term.
Also, cross section of the division is rooting for the ranking lawmaker’s return to the Assembly in order to maintain Ikorodu’s relevance in the scheme of things. Although, this argument is currently facing fierce opposition in some sections of the division.
Verdict: APC is favoured in both Constituencies.
Street Credibility/Popularity:
No doubt, all the candidates are popular with abundance street credibility. Leading in this regard is the incumbent representative of the Ikorodu Constituency I, Hon. Sanai Agunbiade who has won four major primaries and three general elections since 2007. His popularity and street relevance is still very much intact despite the deluge of opposition against his fourth term ambition. He is very popular in major areas of his constituency and also in the three councils.
The incumbent Ikorodu Constituency II representative, Hon. Nurudeen Solaja, is also popular in the three councils he’s representing even though, his street relevance is limited due to his background as someone with privilege upbringing, however, he has so far shown that he can adapt to any given situation.
On the other hand, the PDP candidate in Constituency I, Mr Mukaila Lamina is also a force to reckon with in terms of street credibility despite his privilege background. His political engagement in the last few months has shown that he also controls a sizeable part of the streets even if it cannot be compared to those loyal to Hon. Agunbiade.
Mr Aro Moshood , PDP candidate for the Ikorodu Constituency II Assembly seat, is another contestant with enormous street credibility, having grown up on the street and knowing what is obtainable therein. This accounted for his popularity and control of certain areas in the Constituency.
Verdict: Hon. Agunbiade and Mr Aro Moshood hold the ace in popularity and street credibility.
Control of Strategic Stakeholders:
This is a very crucial factor considering apathy of the electorate. Party affiliation no longer determines people’s voting pattern as current events have shown that most electorate vote for candidates they have attachment with rather than voting along party interest. These set of electorate are ever ready to support their preferred candidates come rain, come shine.
Critically looking at this factor, Hon. Agunbiade has a comfortable edge in this regard. As somebody who has been in the corridor of power for over a decade, coupled with his sound students’, civil/human and community activism, he has perfected his public engagement, especially with the real electorate. No politician, either serving or retired, has maintained a cult-like followership in the division like him. He also enjoys the total support of traditional institutions, market men and women, artisans, professionals, CDAs, youths, transport unions, civil service, socio-cultural groups among others which constitute the real voters.
In this regard, Mr Lamina’s influence is limited due to the fact that he is a new entrant in politics. However, despite his status as a green politician, he has been able to garner appreciable support in some quarters due to the opposition to Hon. Agunbiade’s 4th term ambition.
In Constituency II, Hon. Solaja has also been building influence across critical sectors of the polity. He is firmly in control of traditional institutions, party structure, artisans, market men and women and civil servants among many others in his Constituency.
In the case of Mr Aro Moshood, he has his own fair share of control. He seems to be in control of the sporting circle, especially football players, as well as street guys, youth groups and other critical stakeholders.
Verdict: While the APC candidate is in total control in Ikorodu Constituency I, the situation in Ikorodu Constituency II is 60 to 40 in favour of the APC candidate.
Influence of Traditional Institutions:
In this regard, both APC candidates in Constituencies I and II are in absolutely control of the support of the traditional institutions in their respective domains . Although, the royal fathers and chiefs are fathers to all but over time, the custodians of the tradition and cultures have stated categorically that they are mindful of those who represent them, hence, their recent public demonstration of support for their preferred candidates.
Sequel to this, the traditional rulers across the division have endorsed the candidacy of Hon. Agunbiade at various times since his emergence at the primary last year. Likewise, the Ranodu of Imota, Oba Ajibade Agora, is not hiding his preference for Hon. Nurudeen Solaja whom he has endorsed for second term. There is, however, no record of such royal support for the candidates of PDP or other parties.
Considering the influence of the traditional institutions in decision making, there support is a massive advantage for APC and its candidates.
Verdict: APC candidates in both Constituencies I and II enjoy massive support from the traditional institutions.
